CAN new boss Mark Hughes engineer Carlisle United's great escape? Here is what the stats make of his chances.
Three days after Mike Williamson was dismissed as Carlisle United's head coach after finding himself in an untenable position following the Blues' 5-1 mauling at the hands of Swindon Town, Mark Hughes was appointed with one clear objective: keep Carlisle in the EFL.
In the end, United fans fell out of love with Williamson's 3-4-2-1 and grew frustrated with his affinity for referring to 'expected goals' and 'box entries' and will now be expecting an immediate upturn in form from Hughes' Blues if their side are to survive the drop.
Hughes comes into the job with a wealth of experience under his belt, making over 600 league appearances for teams such as Manchester United, Barcelona, and Bayern Munich during his playing career before stepping into the dugout at clubs such as Manchester City, Blackburn, Stoke City, and Southampton.
More recently Mark Hughes was at the wheel at Bradford City and steered his Bantams side to a League Two playoff semi-final where he was defeated at Brunton Park by Carlisle United.
Upon his dismissal from Valley Parade, Bradford City's chief executive officer Ryan Sparks directly cited this afternoon in North Cumbria as contributing to their decision to part ways.
Speaking at the time, he said: "Unfortunately, since our defeat at Carlisle in the play-off semi-final, results have been disappointing, and after 11 league games we find ourselves a long way away from where we expect to be."
Following his appointment at Carlisle United the first question that many fans may have is: how are the Blues going to play?
During his time at Bradford City, Hughes deployed a variety of systems, however, on most occasions favoured a 4-3-2-1 or a 4-4-2 formation.
Towards the end of his tenure in West Yorkshire, fans became frustrated with a reliance on the former with supporters clamouring for a system with two forwards to provide an extra goal threat.
Hughes is also no stranger to a two-striker formation, with 4-4-2 being the system he played in during the majority of his time at Manchester United, with the new Carlisle boss describing his affinity for the formation in an interview for Coaches Voice in 2021.
He said: "Predominantly, during my playing career, teams played 4-4-2. One striker came short and the other went long, and you just played off each other.
"I played with my back to goal. I saw my job as being about retaining possession, resisting challenges, bringing people into the game."
How Carlisle United could lineup under Mark Hughes (Image: buildlineup.com) Under Mike Williamson, Carlisle United were toothless, creating 40 big chances, which are defined by Opta as an 'a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score' in 22 league matches but missed 28 of these.
Carlisle under the former Newcastle defender also struggled to convert the chances they created, having a higher expected goal (xG) figure, a stat that measures how likely a shot is to result in a goal, than their opponents in nine league matches, however, only won one of these. A 2-1 away victory against Fleetwood Town.
This is an issue that Mark Hughes must fix as soon as possible and a potential two-striker system could do the trick with January recruits Cedwyn Scott and Joe Hugill both finding the net toward the end of Williamson's tenure.
However, statistically Hughes' teams have relied on a high-scoring centre-forward with evidence of this being the prominence of Andy Cook in Bradford City's run to the playoffs in the 2022/23 campaign.
In that season, Cook finished as the leading scorer in League Two finding the net 28 times.
A striker finding the net and winning the Golden Boot is undeniably a fine achievement, however, in the same campaign Cook alone was responsible for 47 per cent of Bradford City's goals, a sign that Hughes' system works best when the forwards are firing.
In his new side's ranks, there is a glaring lack of goals with Carlisle with the squad to date managing 22 goals in 28 games, with the Blues' current top scorers being Luke Armstrong, who left the club to join Motherwell on loan in January, and centre half Sam Lavelle on three goals a piece.
Despite the obvious goal-scoring issues that require addressing, what else will Mark Hughes bring to Carlisle United?
Another staple of his Bradford City side's run to the League Two playoffs was tenacious defending with the stats showing that the Bantams in 2022/23 made 18.4 tackles per game and attempted 24.5 tackles per game, being the highest-ranked side in this category across the fourth tier.
Bradford City in 22/23 also recorded the third-highest dribbles per game at 6.4, a clear sign that Hughes will encourage players to take on their man to craft dangerous opportunities.
However, despite Hughes' experience, one trait from this side that Carlisle United fans will not want to see the Blues inherit is their propensity to lose the ball.
Under Mike Williamson, Carlisle were dispossessed 188 times in 22 games, or 8.5 times per game, and made six errors in the same timeframe that led directly to a shot or goal.
Similarly, Mark Hughes' Bradford City in his final full season as manager prior to his dismissal in October 2023 made 16.9 unsuccessful touches per game and where dispossessed 10.5 times per game.
Only Rochdale, Crewe, Crawley, and Swindon had higher stats in these categories than Hughes' Bantams, with these sides finishing 24th, 13th, 22nd, and 10th respectively.
Statistics cited in this article were sourced from Fbref, Whoscored.com, Sofascore, and Fotmob.
